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Strange market!US heavyweight employment data "burst" US dollars is still strong, and gold prices have fallen and lost their 2010 US dollars()

更新时间:2024-02-27 23:45:17
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On Tuesday (December 5),热点新闻 the data showed that the number of vacancy in the United States in October fell to the lowest level since 2021, but the US dollar index still rose on Tuesday.The price of spot gold fell on the second trading day in a row, and the price of gold fell below the 2010 USD/ounce mark.Bitcoin has exceeded $ 44,000, hitting a new high in the past two years.


The main currency and goods closed on December 5:


Foreign exchange: euro/USD closed at 1.07977; pound/USD closed at 1.25951; USD/yen closed at 147.093; Australian dollar/USD closed at 0.65488; USD/Canadian dollar closed at 1.35912; USD/Swiss franc to receive 0.87415.


Commodity: Spot gold receipt of US $ 2019.22/ounce; COMEX Phaoodling Phase 2036.3 US dollars/ounce; spot silver received $ 24.142/ounce; COMEX silver receipts at $ 24.546/ounce; NYMEX crude oil receivable of US $ 72.32/barrel;77.20 USD/barrel.


Important news review:


1. According to the latest data, American employers released 8.7 million position vacancies in October, which is the least since March 2021. This indicates that in the face of higher interest rates, employees recruitment is cooling, but it is still in itHealth speed.The US Department of Labor reported on Tuesday that the vacancy of positions decreased significantly compared with 9.4 million in September.At the same time, the number of layoffs in October increased slightly.The number of resigned Americans has decreased slightly -this usually reflects their confidence in their ability to find better salary or working conditions elsewhere.


Latest data: The US employment market cools rapidly, and millions of positions are not in seconds!The inflation pressure is relieved, and the sound reduction is up again!


2. On Tuesday, the vacant position in the United States fell to 8.7 million in October, a 28 -month low, which further proved that the labor market was cooling in response to higher interest rates.At the same time, in November, the ISM non -manufacturing PMI rebounded from a five -month low of 51.8 to 52.7.After the data was announced, the US dollar index continued to rise, and US stocks rose and declined. Bitcoin exceeded the $ 44,000 mark in one fell swoop.During the day, there was also a heavyweight news from the Chinese side. Moody's credit prospects reduced China's credit prospects to negative, and the RMB and the Chinese stock market fell.


Damnive market!Sino -US heavyweight news stirred that the market Bitcoin exceeded $ 44,000, and the US dollar exceeded the 104 mark.


3. As the end of the year approaches, major investment banks on Wall Street have released the market outlook for 2024.In this context, SAXO Bank proposed a deep warning of 2024, pointing out that the global economic path, which has been relatively stable since the global financial crisis, is about to end. This may push the world into a danger and danger and danger and danger and danger and danger and danger and danger and danger andFuture of uncertainty.


Shengbao Bank's eight major world forecasts in 2024!He was accidentally elected as the end of the US president, the end of the US capitalism, and the crude oil soared to $ 150


4. This Monday, the rise of gold and silver's rise soared, setting the top of the blowout. As the price remains high, a Canadian bank is expected to have some solid selling pressure in the short term.After the price of gold exceeded $ 2100/ounce, large -scale selling in gold prompted the Daoming Securities (TDS) commodity analysts to recently conduct tactical short positions on gold and silver.Analysts point out that precious metals are seriously overtaken.


The price is explosive, and Daoming Securities has short gold and silver strategically.


5. The American media "Wall Street Journal" wrote that the hot labor market that supports the unexpected and strong economy this year is showing signs of cooling, which shows that economic growth in 2024 may slow down.The unemployment rate has risen slightly this year, and Americans have been looking for new jobs for a longer time, and wage growth is also slowing.The November November Employment Report may provide more clues, indicating whether the tense labor market in history is starting to relax.


The US non -agricultural as soon as possible to go to the "appetizers" 5 pictures to see the hot labor market that has been hotly hot for a long time ...


6. With the epic rebound in November ended in failure, investors have been doubting the stock market since December.Last month's popular point of view, that is, the Fed will quickly cut interest rates in 2024 to achieve the "blond girl" scene, but now it has become the focus of controversy.U.S. employment data later this week is considered the key to understanding economic and wage growth to promote inflation and lead to long -term increase in loan costs.A strategic strategist of Goldman Sachs Group predicts that the market soaring in November said that as the driving force for rising last month is rapidly disappearing, please be ready to call the stock market.


The atmosphere has changed. Don't be rising in November. "Small Eyes" Goghnsheng estimates the trend at the end of the year.


7. Paul Gambles, a investment portist, said that the Fed will need to cut interest rates at least 5 times next year to avoid recession in the US economy.Gambles, co -founder and management partner of MBMG Group, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that the Federal Reserve lags behind the economic curve in terms of interest rate cuts. In order to avoid extreme and persistent currency tightening cycles, it must be reduced at least 5 times in 2024."I think the Fed's policy is now disconnected from economic factors and reality, so that we cannot wake up when the Fed will wake up and actually make any assumptions on the degree of damage caused by the economy." Gambles warned.


Investment portfolio manager warns: The Federal Reserve is "disconnected" with reality, and it must be cut 5 times next year


8. At this time of each year, the top strategist of Wall Street will tell customers their views on the market trend in the next year.This year, strategists have put forward a wide range of views.Some people see pessimism, and some people see power.The target range is 4,200 to 5,500.This means that the return rate after close on Friday is between -8.5%and 19.7%.In any case, the prediction is not biased down as last year.Don't pay too much attention to the one -year goal, accurately predict the short -term trend of the market is extremely difficult, and few people in Wall Street can successfully achieve this.However, we do believe that the research, analysis and comments behind these predictions can provide rich information.


[U.S. Stock Outlook] Wall Street predicts the 2024 standard Pu 500 index: overall optimism, up to 50% of the highest or soaring, nearly 50%


9. "Financial Post" Diane Francis pointed out by analyzing the current economic data that Canada is still a country with poor long -term performance.In the third quarter, the Canadian economy contracted 1.06%month -on -month, while the US economy increased by 5.2%.EU and Australia's economic growth has also slowed down.Francis pointed out that technically, Canada may not have fallen into a decline, but Doug Porter, a bank economist in Montreal, said that the situation does not look optimistic, "No matter what you label this economy,It has basically not increased. Although the rapid growth of the population is a short -lived data, "he told CBC news." From the overall sharing, the Canadian economy is trying to grow, but it is trying to keep it above the decline. "


Minister of Finance: Two major indicators show that Canada is caught in a serious economic dilemma


Market overview


Even if the data shows that the number of vacancy in the United States in October fell to the lowest level since 2021, the US dollar index still strengthened on Tuesday and regained some declines in the past few weeks.


The ICE index that tracked the US dollar against six major currencies rose 0.27%to 103.99, the highest level of market receiving since November 22.


Economic data, the US Department of Labor reported on Tuesday that the number of vacancies in the United States in October fell to the lowest level in nearly two and a half years, indicating that the market conditions in the tension in history may be relaxing.


Data show that the total number of vacancies in the United States in October was 8.733 million, a decrease of 617,000 compared with the previous month, a decrease of 6.6%.This number is far lower than the 9.4 million estimated Dow Jones, which is also the lowest level since March 2021.


Some analysts said that some of the reasons for the small rebound in the US dollar were mainly due to the sharp after -selling in recent weeks, and the trend reversed.In November alone, the US dollar index fell 3%, the largest monthly decline in a year.


According to the "Fed Observation" tools of the Zhishang Institute (CME), traders have digesting the Fed's expectations of at least 125 basis points next year, and believes that the possibility of 50 basis points in June next year is very high.


FxStreet.com senior analyst Joseph Trevisani said: "The Fed tries to make the market believe that it may still raise interest rates. The market believes that everything has been completed, but the Fed is willing to continue to do so and let everyone hesitate."


After the gold price hit a record high on the previous trading day, it recorded the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday.The US dollar goes to make the price of gold.


US stocks closed on Tuesday.The market pays attention to non -agricultural employment data on Friday to further judge the US interest rate path.Investors are avoided before the data is announced.The yields on Treasury bonds in the United States fell sharply on Tuesday.The US 2 -year Treasury yield fell 7.5 basis points to 4.583%, and the lowest fell to 4.56%in the market.


Crude oil futures prices closed down on Tuesday.Although Russia stated that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting and its Allies (OPEC) is preparing to deepen its production in the first quarter of next year, the strengthening of the US dollar and demand concerns still pressure oil prices.


Foreign exchange market


Euro: Euro/USD fell on Tuesday, closing at 1.0798, a decrease of 0.35%.Technically, the preliminary resistance of the exchange rate is 1.0837, the further resistance is 1.0877, the key resistance is 1.0907; the preliminary support of the exchange rate is 1.0767, the further support is 1.0737, and the more critical support is 1.0697.


Pound: The British pound/USD fell on Tuesday at 1.2595, a decrease of 0.26%.Technically, the preliminary resistance of the exchange rate is 1.2639, the further resistance is 1.2682, and the key resistance is 1.2713; the preliminary support for the decline in the exchange rate is 1.2564, the further support is 1.2533, and the key support is 1.2489.


Yen: USD/yen fell on Tuesday and closed at 147.093, a decrease of 0.02%.Technically, the preliminary resistance of the exchange rate is at 147.468, the further resistance level is 147.844, and the key resistance is 148.301; the preliminary support for the exchange rate is 146.635, which is further supported at 146.178, and the key support is 145.802.


stock market


On Tuesday (December 5), due to the recent rise in Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard Purcera 500 Index fell.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.88 points, a decrease of 0.23%, closing at 36,124.56 points.The S & P 500 index fell by 0.06%to 4,567.18 points.Due to the winning market of technology stocks, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.31%to close at 14,229.91 points.Tuesday's trend appeared after all three indexes on Monday, which made people question whether the market rose too fast.The callback on Monday occurred after three average rising for 5 consecutive weeks.It is worth noting that the three major stock indexes are still rising quarterly and annual, which highlights the market rebound of the current trading week.


On Tuesday, the European market rose and down, because the strong trend of November faded.The Pan -Ortow 600 Index closed up the market by 0.40, an increase of 1.84%to 467.62 points; the German DAX30 index closed up 129.59 points, an increase of 0.79%to 16534.35 points;7489.51 points; the French CAC40 Index closed up 54.40 points, an increase of 0.74%to 7386.99 points; the closing of the European Stock 50 index increased by 37.40 points, an increase of 0.85%to 4452.35 points;At 10242.65 points; Italian FTSE MIB index rose 168.91 points, an increase of 0.56%to 30083.00 points.Among the Pan -Ortok 600 index, the closing of automobile stocks rose 1.2%, while mining stocks fell 0.9%.


In terms of the Chinese market, as of Tuesday, the Shanghai Index was reported at 2972.30 points, down 1.67%, and the turnover was 340.5 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Index was reported at 9470.36 points, down 1.97%, and the turnover was 482 billion yuan.%, The turnover is 211.6 billion yuan.On the disk, the increase in food processing, dairy, and prefabricated vegetable sectors has risen, and Huawei Orara, precious metals, and storage chip sectors have fallen.


Commodity market


Suppressed by the US dollar, the spot gold closed on Tuesday and fell 9.83 US dollars, a decrease of 0.48%. At the 2019.22 US dollars/ounce, the price of gold fell sharply to 2009.89 US dollars/ounce after the vacancy data from US positions.


The price of gold futures delivered by the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) fell 5.9 US dollars on Tuesday, a decrease of 0.3%, and closed at $ 2036.3/ounce.


Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said that the golden bulls have been exhausted and paused after the rebound.He added: "The level of $ 2,000/ounce may become the recent bottom of the gold market."


"We estimate that in the second half of 2024, when the Fed started to cut interest rates in the second half of 2024, the price of gold could only rise to $ 2100/ounce."


Spot silver closed down 1.44%on Tuesday to $ 24.142/ounce.COMEX silver futures fell 1.45%to $ 24.546/ounce.


Spot platinum fell 2.02%on Tuesday to $ 901.29/ounce; spot gold fell 4.18%to $ 932.90/ounce.Platinum futures fell 2%to $ 906.6/ounce... Futures fell 4.12%to $ 940.30/ounce.


The New York Commodity Exchange's Sidezhou Medica Crude Oil (WTI) futures price closed down 1%on Tuesday at $ 72.32/barrel.The price of Brent crude oil in February fell 83 cents or nearly 1.1%to $ 77.20/barrel.


Seveens Report Research joint editor Tyler Richey pointed out that the results of the OPEC meeting last week are obviously disappointing, because the additional production reduction is not impressive, and the production reduction policy in 2024 is a voluntary nature.


On November 30, OPEC agreed to reduce about 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024.However, at least 1.3 million barrels/day of these reductions are the extension of voluntary restrictions that Saudi Arabia and Russia have implemented.Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that if the existing production reduction operation is not enough, OPEC is ready to deepen oil production in the first quarter of 2024 to eliminate the "speculation and fluctuations" in the crude oil market.




On Tuesday, Bitcoin continued a strong rise before the day before, and once exceeded $ 44,000 during the market, it was the first time in April 2022.Tuesday's rise has increased the cumulative increase of Bitcoin this year by more than 150%.


At present, the market consensus is that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve the application for the first Bitcoin spot ETF in early 2024.


The concept of digital currency concepts in US stocks has risen, Robinhood has risen more than 8%, Coinbase rose more than 3%, and MicroslateGy rose nearly 3%.


The 90 -day phase relationship between Bitcoin and MSCI INC. World Stock Index has fallen from 0.60 at the beginning of the year to 0.18.Similar research on the token and spot gold shows that this number has dropped from 0.36 to almost zero.Reading is 1 indicating that the asset moves synchronously, and -1 indicates that they move in the opposite direction.


Pay attention on Wednesday (December 6) (Beijing time):


18:00 euro zone monthly retail sales monthly rate rate


21:15 November of the United States in November ADP employment


21:30 US October Trade Account


23:00 The Bank of Canada announced interest rate resolution


23:00 The United States November New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index


23:30 U.S. to the week of December 1st EIA crude oil inventory


23:30 U.S. to the week of December 1st EIA Ku Xin crude oil inventory


23:30 U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory in the United States from December 1st


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