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China Net Finance, December 6th. According to the China Logistics and Procurement Federation, the global manufacturing PMI was 48%in November 2023, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and operated below 50%in 14 consecutive months. The global economy wasThe weak downward trend has not changed.In terms of section, the Asian manufacturing PMI is stable above 50%, which is the same as last month; the European manufacturing PMI increased from the previous month, but it is still about 46%.One liter of a month is below 50%.
Data changes show that the global economic vulnerable fluctuation characteristics have not changed, and the downlink risks still exist.The latest report of the OECD will reduce the expected global economic growth in 2023 from the previous 3.0%to 2.9%; it is expected that the economic growth rate in 2024 is 2.7%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than expected to be lower than 2023.
From the perspective of the global monetary policy environment, due to the relief of the inflation pressure in the United States and the euro zone, the market's expectations of continuing interest rate hikes have fallen sharply, and the expected expectations of next year will rise.If the central bank announced the increase in interest rate cuts, it will help alleviate the downward pressure of the global economy.In the short term, the global economy still has a downlink risk.Geopolical conflicts, the impact of uncertainty in trade friction still exists on the global economic recovery.
In the long run, the stability of the global economy still depends on the stable recovery of the trade environment, and the endogenous recovery of countries around the world.The global economic stability recovery will accompany the following characteristics: first, the global manufacturing industry has entered the replenishment cycle; the other is that the actual purchasing power of residents of various countries has steadily recovered; third, the pressure of inflation is significantly relieved; and the fourth is that the toughness of the global industrial chain supply chain has gradually increased.
The decline in the European manufacturing industry is slightly slow, and PMI rises from last month
In November 2023, the European manufacturing PMI was 45.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, hitting a new high in the second half of the year, but the index level is still below 50%in 16 consecutive consecutive months, and it is lower than 46%.level.From the perspective of major countries, although Germany, Britain, France, and Spain's manufacturing PMI are all low, they have increased to varying degrees from last month.Among them, the German manufacturing PMI has risen for 4 consecutive months.
Judging from the changes in the European manufacturing PMI data, the European economy is still in the trend of weak operation, but there has been a signs of narrowing in November. Whether it can be achieved in the future is still observing.The autumn economic outlook report issued by the European Commission has lowered the expected economic growth expectations of the European Union and the euro zone today.From the perspective of inflation level, the initial inflation rate in the euro area in November has dropped from 2.9%in October to 2.4%.Although the European Central Bank still has a cautious attitude towards inflation pressure, the market has heated up interest rates on the European Central Bank.The possibility of poor economic data in Europe has greatly reduced the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates in the euro zone.The European Central Bank believes that due to its weak economic and high interest rates, the financial industry is facing risks, rising financing costs, and contraction of loan business on European banks' profitability.
The manufacturing industry in the Americas not fluctuates greatly, PMI is the same as last month
In November 2023, the PMI of the American manufacturing industry was 47.2%, which was the same as last month. It was less than 50%for 13 consecutive months. It shows that the manufacturing industry has maintained weaknesses, which has not changed much compared with the previous month.Data from major countries show that PMI, Mexico, Brazil and Colombian manufacturing, have increased varying degrees from last month; Canadian manufacturing PMI has declined compared with the previous month; American manufacturing PMI is the same as last month.
The ISM report shows that in November, the manufacturing industry still maintained a weak operation. The PMI of the manufacturing industry was 46.7%, which was the same as last month, and it was less than 50%in 13 consecutive months.The changes in the sub -item index showed that the decline in the demand for manufacturing in the United States has slowed down, and the new order index has increased from the previous month, but still below 50%; manufacturing production activities have accelerated shrinkage, and the production index decreases for two consecutive months. In NovemberDowns to less than 50%.The employment activities of the US manufacturing industry have not improved significantly, and the employee index has decreased for 2 consecutive months, maintaining a lower level of about 46%.From the perspective of monetary policy, the market is expected to raise interest rates in the United States in 2024.In addition to the relief of inflation pressure, the increase in the risk of high interest rates on the US economic recession is also an important consideration for market calls to cut interest rates as soon as possible.As one of the best indicators for American GDP forecasts, Atlanta Fed's GDPNow's GDP prediction value in the fourth quarter of the United States on December 1 was only 1.2%, which was less than 0.6 percentage points in the previous period, which was also significantly lower than the third quarter.5.2%growth rate.The latest economic situation of the Federal Reserve's "brown book" shows that due to the poor performance of consumption and manufacturing, economic activities in the United States have slowed in recent weeks.
African manufacturing has narrowed, and PMI rises slightly
In November 2023, the African manufacturing PMI was 48%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. HoweverThe month is narrowed, but the overall is still maintaining a weak operation.From the perspective of major countries, South Africa's manufacturing PMI has increased significantly compared with the previous month, but still below 50%; Nigerian manufacturing PMI decreased for 2 consecutive months, less than 50%.
The continuous decline in African manufacturing means that the stability of African economic recovery has decreased.The instability of global economic recovery has continued to appear on Africa's economy; some African countries' political unstable situation has also brought adverse effects on African economic recovery.In the future, the important start of African economic recovery includes the increase in infrastructure construction investment, the development of digital economy and technological innovation, and the continuous advancement of the African Free Trade Zone.
The Asian manufacturing industry is relatively stable, PMI is the same as last month
In November 2023, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, which was the same as last month. It was more than 50%for 11 consecutive months. It shows that the Asian manufacturing industry has not fluctuated significantly compared with the previous month, maintaining a relatively stable growth trend.From the perspective of major countries, China's manufacturing operation is generally stable, and the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points slightly from the previous month to 49.4%.According to the main countries, PMI, the PMI of Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore's manufacturing, has risen slightly from the previous month. Japan and South Korea's manufacturing PMI decreased by a rising one by one last month. The Japanese manufacturing PMI is still below 50%.Industry PMI rose to 50%critical point.