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When it comes to A shares,热门话题 it is rooted in people's hearts than liquor faith.According to everyone's ideal path, starting from Moutai at the pyramid spike, leading the front line and quasi -first -line companies will rise, which will cause the white wine sector to rise as a whole. In the end, it can even drive the rise of other categories such as beer and wine.The next cycle is coming.
On December 5, 2023, the three major indexes weakened. The Shanghai Index once lost 3,000 points.Wine and fall, falling more than 2%.
On the other hand, the liquor industry has been favorable recently, but it has not ushered in the ideal rise path. What is the reason?Is there a better way to invest than the liquor belief?
1. Why didn't liquor usher in a big rise?
Entering the fourth quarter, although the liquor ushered in the relative off -season after the double festival, the good news of the industry was frequent.At the policy level, trillions of national debt; capital level; industry level, but every favorable appearance, liquor seems to be a pulse rising, not ushered in a continuous market. This is because of the current series of actions.More than the substantive significance that acts on the industry.
Taking the recent price increase and dividend of Moutai as an example, on the day of Moutai's price increase, in the gathering of bidding, Maotai's straight line rose to the daily limit, and after opening the market, the entire liquor sector entered the fluctuation adjustment period.After Moutai announced the dividend, the liquor sector had just increased slightly on the same day, and it was still shocking.
From the industry level, we may be able to get the answer. After Moutai announced the price increase, the terminal retail price has not changed much.This is because Moutai referred to the factory price rather than the guidance price, so it actually involves the problem of profit distribution between Maotai and dealers.This can also explain why after Moutai's price raising in 2018, we can see that the batch price has been upward, because Maotai also adjusted the guidance price from 1299 yuan/bottle to 1499 yuan/bottle at the same time.During New Year's Day, it is in the peak season of liquor sales.
From a deeper level, liquor destocking is still an industrial issue, or it will also be the main theme of the Spring Festival.Therefore, the actual inventory is still under digestion, and the price increase cannot bring the phenomenon of expected stocking, or centralized ordering.The more significance lies in the planning of the industry's market -oriented price system and the profit ceiling of opening high -end liquor, and these favorable time takes time to digest.
Moutai dividends are more to boost market confidence. After this special dividend, Maotai's dividend rate reaches 2.55%. Although it is not as high as a high dividend dividend standard, Moutai's growth is relatively good.Cash flow and profitability.
However, this dividend has not achieved the effect of point and face, because the excellence of Moutai's fundamentals cannot cover the industry's problems.Moutai's strong brand power and powerful market demand are very scarce. At present, the situation in the off -season of digestive inventory is unclear. Next, there are sales of wine companies dealers and Spring Festival sales., Urgently need to stabilize the signal.
2. Different attributes of consumption: Optional consumption VS must choose consumption
In the food and beverage industry, although liquor occupies a large proportion, it does not mean that only liquor is a better investment target. On the contrary, the targets such as condiments and dairy products have different industry attributes from liquor.In different market environments, relatively good investment income can also be generated.
Baijiu is an optional consumption, and condiments and dairy products are required consumption, which means that liquor has a typical cycle, good employment, good income, and confidence, and liquor sales will be good.Therefore, we can often see that optional consumption can often see a large rebound after economic stimulus.
The four liquor bulls before the recurrence were first built by the policy, and then the demand scenario was restored, and then the performance of the wine company was verified.For example, in 2008, the government launched the "4 trillion" fiscal stimulus plan, the "six major consumption actions" in 2015, "Top Ten Expansion Consumption Actions" and so on.At present, government consumption stimulus policies are launching densely, but it takes a while to recover at terminal consumption. This is related to the influence of residents' consumption mentality and consumption power during the prevention and control period.
Seasoning and dairy products are not very affected by cycles, but at the rising cycle, the same optional consumption will usher in a double rise together.This is because when the consumption really enters the upward channel, the policy stimulus is sufficiently digested at the optional consumer industry, and the consumption consumption recovery is often the inevitable result of the rising of corporate prosperity-resident wages.Not an independent variable.
During the downward cycle, such as SARS influence, financial crisis, and prevention and control, the consumption behavior of residents has been significantly reduced, making the total consumption decline and structural adjustment.The consumer, oil, food, beverages, daily necessities, etc., which are necessities, are relatively strong, expensive, expensive and differentiated by automotives (cars and petroleum products), gold and silver jewelry, etc., which are expensive and differentiated.
3. Differential investment may be the only free lunch
Makovitz, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, believes: "Diversity of asset allocation is the only free lunch of investment". Through decentralized investment and through decentralized investment, various risks may suppress each other, which is the so -called "hedge hedging"" ".To build an excellent decentralized investment portfolio, the extremely important is to reduce the correlation between the assets, which is commonly known as "don't put all eggs in a basket."
Taking the CSI subdivision food index and the CSI Liquor Index as an example, the industry of CSI subdivision food index is distributed in liquor, beverage dairy, condiments, etc., but there are also some relatively rigid industry distribution.The liquor index liquor content is 100%, which is a very high -level industry index fund.
Judging from historical performance, the Sino -CSI Liquor Index does show the strong elasticity of optional consumption. In the past ten years, the yield rate is 627%, and the annualized yield rate is 23%.The annualized return rate is 15%.However, from the perspective of the trend, in the relatively weak economy, the yields of the CSI Liquor Index and the Sino -C Securities Segment Food Index are not much different.From the perspective of volatility, the annual volatility of the Sino -C Securities Segment Food Index is 28%, which is less than 33%of the annual fluctuations of the China C Securities Subdivision Food Index.
According to the views of Guangfa Securities, the consumption recovery is divided into 3 stages.At present, the consumption recovery is in the stage of pressure. During the prevention and control period, the business conditions of the enterprise are deteriorating. During the gradual recovery of domestic demand, it will be accompanied by accelerated atrophy of foreign demand. Economic pressure, profit pressure, and employment pressure will gradually appear. After the consumption recovery period is over, the income willIt is expected that it will become the main variable that affects consumption. The psychology of low and middle -income people who do not want to consume and dare not consume will cause the consumption situation of the whole society to be under pressure again.
In this line, if the consumer investment is alone in the optional consumer track of liquor, there will inevitably be a adjustment period, but if it can be scattered in other industries with relatively rigidityRisks.When consumer confidence has gradually recovered, a series of stable growth policies such as finance and credit, including consumption policies, have gradually taken effect, and employment pressure will be a certain link.Double rise.
Food and Beverages ETF (515170) and its connection funds (Class A: 013125 C: 013126) Tightly track the CSI subdivision food index, one -click packaging food and beverage industry high -quality leading stocks.The holding industry is mainly liquor, accounting for more than 67%, followed by beverage dairy products, seasoning fermented products, leisure foods, and so on.The top ten heavy warehouses include the leading and drinking leaders of Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Illi shares.
This article is generated by AI. The content and data are for reference only, and it does not constitute investment advice.