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Schroder Investment: The best time for the interest rate hike cycle is close to the end of the bond.()

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更新时间:2024-02-12 07:10:03
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Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Schroord's investment released research reports stated that although the inflation rate is higher than the level of the past ten years, the essence of high -quality bonds and the nominal fame rate at present at the highest level in 15 years.This has led to bonds in substantial valuation and compared to other asset classes, especially stocks are cheaper.In addition, with the gradual cooling and inflation of the US economic growth, and most of the interest rate hike cycles of the state -developed national central bank are close, from a historical perspective, it is currently the best time for investment bonds.

Schroord's investment pointed out that as far as valuation is concerned, no matter from the perspective of absolute or relative valuation, compared with other asset classes, the valuation of bonds is at the lowest level in the past 10 years, and it has lived in the past 20 years.One of the most attractive assets.This does not mean that bond prices will rise immediately, but the increase in the rate of founting rate can indeed provide a large buffer to offset the further decline in prices.

Julien Houdain, investing in Global's unconstrained fixed income director, said that the 3D trend composed of decarburized, globalization and population structure may cause three major problems: deficit, debt and default, which has a significant impact on fixed income investment.Although this does not sound good for the bond market, there will be some attractive investment opportunities in the future.

For deficit, Julien Houdain is not worried, it has reached the point of greatness.Due to the different regional fiscal trends, these highly structural bond yields also reflect the greater degree of differentiation in the financial market.This provides attractive cross -market opportunities. Taking the euro zone as an example, unlike the United States, because the financial theory of the euro zone is consistent, he prefers that European bonds are more than US bonds.

Regarding debt, he said that for many years, buyers (that is, Global Central Bank) who are not sensitive to prices have led debt demand, but because of quantitative tightening policies, the central bank is shrinking the scale of debt.This means that governments of various countries have greater dependence on price -sensitive debt buyers. These buyers expect to get higher returns through long -term holding bonds, that is, a higher "period premium".

This will lead to the steeper interest rate curve of the bond, which also means that the difference between the yields between long -term bonds and short -term bonds will be greater.In general, higher ticket interest rates not only provide buffer for capital losses, but also for many years, providing other real alternatives for other asset classes (including stocks) for many years.

Regarding the breach of contract, Julien Houdain predicts that as the major central banks around the world stop raising interest rates, starting into the interest rate reduction cycle in 2024, this will bring support for bonds.Although the corporate default rate is likely to rise, as the balance sheet is relatively stable, he expects the default rate will not rise sharply.The degree of differentiation of the financial market is expected to expand, whether it is in the regional level or the issuer level, because investors hope to obtain returns compensation through companies with higher leverage rates.Therefore, investors can choose bonds by cautiously to achieve higher returns.

Lisa Hornby, the director of fixed income in the United States, said that in terms of fixed income asset allocation, considering the current incomparable fame rate of various industries, she suggested using speculative and more prudent selection methods.They are still focusing on the establishment of high -quality industries, such as US Treasury bonds and institutional mortgage securities, as well as short -term and medium -term corporate bonds.

They believe that as the increase in interest rates affects the economy, the slowdown in economic growth has begun to put greater pressure on corporate profits, and more opportunities to increase holdings will be increased in the next few quarters.Once the market is mismatched, a considerable investment opportunity to shift from liquidity to high -risk assets should appear.

Schroder's investment in emerging market bonds and commodities ABDALLAH Guezour said that after a positive interest rate hike cycle, the current average substantial policy interest rate of emerging markets is as high as 7%, and some emerging market central banks have obtained interest rate reduction space.Considering the risks brought by excessive differences with the Federal Reserve's policy, he expects that the central bank of most emerging market countries will slow down the interest rate cut, and the Fed seems to still maintain its position to tighten monetary policy.

The prudent currency easing policy adopted by the main central banks of emerging markets is likely to enhance their credibility, help maintain the stability of currency and support the improvement of trade balance, thereby driving capital to the local government bond market.They expect that the 10 -year local government bond yields of Brazil (11.5%), Mexico (9.7%), Colombia (11%), South Africa (12%) and Indonesia (6.8%) are expected to have high returns in 2024.

Looking forward to the future, the era of 3D resetting is coming, and the risks of inflation and tensions have continued to increase again.As far as long -term is concerned, the financial market has a stable demand for commodities and insufficient supply, and it is expected to promote the rise in prices, especially the commodities that are sought after by the energy transformation investment boom.In this context, active allocation of commodities can be used as hedging strategies in investment portfolios.

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